As I keep reading in the news, the interim government of Iraq has given up on getting the January 30th vote to happen throughout the entire country. Some parts, probably the ones where people keep getting shot and blown up in large numbers, just aren't going to have polls. It's not that I disagree with the decision; you couldn't pay me enough to be a poll worker in Tikrit this year. It's just that this creates a rather nasty future problem.
The pockets that won't be voting are the ones that are completely racked by violence. They're completely racked by violence because they're hotbeds of insurgency; they're hotbeds of insurgency because they're centers of the Sunni minority. The Sunni minority, then, basically isn't going to be voting much.
Okay. The odds of any significant Sunni representation after the election are low no matter what. That's what being a minority means, especially when the US is pretty much backing the other guys. So there are going to be a lot of people -- Sunni people -- not recognizing the elected government as legitimate because a) they're not in it and b) they didn't vote it in. To sum up, the same people who now don't recognize the interim government as legitimate and are trying to fuck it up as much as possible are going to have every reason to not recognize the elected government and try to fuck it up as much as possible.
That's gonna suck.Posted by dianna at January 13, 2005 09:24 AM